Penang has been DAP’s fortress since 2008. Could this end in the next polls?

KUALA LUMPUR – Since the Democratic Action Party (DAP) took power in Penang after the Pakatan Rakyat pact won a landslide victory in the northern Malaysian state on March 8, 2008, it has not lost a single contest for a state assembly seat.

But after four terms enjoying a two-thirds supermajority along with its allies in Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition that is now called Pakatan Harapan (PH), murmurs are growing of a revolt by voters in the manufacturing powerhouse.

As at May, internal estimates shared with The Straits Times by senior DAP figures on condition of anonymity project that PH is likely to lose this supermajority. A “worst-case scenario” may see PH winning only 23 out of 40 state seats, while DAP may lose its unbeaten streak in some of the 19 wards it has dominated since 2008.

Therefore, concern is growing over whether disappointment with Datuk Seri Anwar’s federal administration could impact Penang in the same way the coalition was trounced at November 2025’s Sabah state election. DAP failed to win a single seat then, despite winning six in 2020.

“We, of course, want to believe that Penang is different. What happened in Sabah is probably uniquely Sabah. Any party aligned with (the federal government) suffered great losses,” Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow told The Straits Times in an April interview.

He was referring to the “anti-federal sentiment” stemming largely from a dispute over revenue sharing from taxes collected in the easternmost state. There is also a mining licence scandal in which the anti-graft authorities are accused of making politically motivated decisions.

The Padang Kota assemblyman also cited how Sabah PH was only part of the state government for less than three years, whereas in Penang, it has a near two-decade track record. From a gross domestic product per capita of about 12 per cent higher than the national average in 2010, the state has soared to the top of the charts in 2024 at 34 per cent higher, or RM76,033 (S$24,530).

But Mr Chow, who is also a member of the federal Parliament, admitted: “The people can judge... whether you have lost sight of your political vision, you became arrogant, you became corrupt.”

It was a nod to a slew of local issues that have cropped up during his second term. These include accusations that the PH-led federal government has failed to deliver on its 2022 election manifesto of stamping out corruption and instituting reforms to improve governance and democratic space.

DAP responded to the debacle in Sabah by announcing in February that it was bringing forward its 2026 congress to July. In it, the main agenda would be to assess the direction of the Anwar administration and whether the party should relinquish its government roles, including Cabinet positions. 

This effectively set a six-month deadline to resolve a slew of outstanding grievances such as the delay in recognising the Unified Examination Certificate – equivalent to the A levels and offered at independent Chinese-medium high schools in Malaysia – and allegations of abuses within the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission. 

Mr Anwar’s hardline stance against Hindu temples of disputed legality and the sudden outright banning of pig farming in Selangor – Malaysia’s richest state that is also a PH stronghold – just before Chinese New Year have further hardened non-Malay-Muslim minorities, who make up the core of DAP’s support.

Meanwhile, there are local issues in Penang that have bogged down Mr Chow’s administration.

Mr Chow is set to step down once polls due by 2028 are called, having served the maximum two terms. However, anger over increases in water tariffs and quit rent, as well as clashes with his predecessor Lim Guan Eng, have tarnished DAP’s shine in the island-state.

Quit rent refers to an annual land tax levied by Malaysia’s state governments on landowners, calculated based on land size, category and usage.

“I want to stress that many voters would not have supported the chief minister if they had known the manifesto for the Penang state polls in 2023 would allow the quit rent to be increased by several thousand times,” former finance minister Lim said in a March 20 statement.

Mr Chow, for his part, has repeatedly explained that the hike was to make rates fairer and more uniform since they were last updated in 1994. Massive increases were due to changes in land use, especially from agricultural to industrial or commercial.

Penang as bellwether for national fortunes

While most observers feel that PH losing Penang is an unlikely result, its fortunes in this stronghold state would be a bellwether for national election results, like how the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional (BN) performs in its birthplace Johor.

In short, if the national sentiment can drive you out of your traditional fortress, then it will also force you out of federal power. This happened to BN in 2018 when it lost both Johor and Putrajaya for the first time since independence six decades ago.

Hence, if the previously unthinkable happens and PH loses Penang, the chances of Mr Anwar leading Malaysia for a second term will be remote.

Such a drastic fall from grace would not be unprecedented. Since its surprise win in 1969, Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia – which subsequently joined BN before moving to the opposition Perikatan Nasional in 2021 – itself enjoyed that supermajority for nearly four decades except at the 1990 polls. 

That edition saw BN take a hit nationally after UMNO suffered a damaging split as a result of its fractious 1987 leadership contest, which Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad narrowly survived.

In fact, the Gerakan-led Penang chapter of BN had, after the 1990 setback, enjoyed three consecutive terms of over nine-tenths control of the state legislature, including a record 38 out of 40 seats in 2004. 

Just four years later, Gerakan was totally wiped out, losing all 13 seats it contested. It has not won one since.

In 2023, PH won 27 seats, just over two-thirds of the assembly as part of an electoral pact with BN. That pact now appears to be unravelling ahead of growing speculation that a general election could take place by the end of 2026, well before a February 2028 deadline.

The sense is that despite growing antipathy towards PH in Penang, voters lack a pull factor from the opposition there as compared with Selangor, its other traditional base.

“The disenchantment among non-Malay voters across Malaysia is real. But in Penang, there is no chief minister figure, that is, a strong Chinese leader, aside those in DAP,” advisory firm Viewfinder Global Affairs’ managing director Adib Zalkapli told ST.

“The difference with Selangor is that there are viable alternatives from the other coalitions and since the chief minister must be a Malay, non-Malays will have no qualms rejecting DAP.”

Internal tensions add to challenges

But there is still time for things to get worse for DAP in Penang.

DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke had in March ordered a stop to the public spat between Mr Chow and Lim over the quit rent issue. But, there is no sign of the feud abating, as the latter has continued to champion landowners appealing against thousand-fold increases.

Despite an ongoing corruption trial, Lim remains influential on the island. His camp took the lion’s share of women’s wing positions in Penang DAP at their leadership election last October, instead of those loyal to state chief Steven Sim, the front runner to be Mr Chow’s successor.

The bad blood between Lim and his former protege is a running theme within DAP, especially in Penang, where Mr Sim built up his faction and became the party’s state chairman in 2024. 

At the 2025 DAP national election, the duo’s rivalry intensified as Mr Sim, the Entrepreneurship and Cooperatives Development Minister, allied with other factions to reduce the number of Lim’s loyalists in DAP’s top leadership. Subsequently, Lim was forced to relinquish the national chairmanship and be redesignated as an adviser.

Their feud has only deepened with public spats in recent months over appointees to Penang’s local councils and Hindu Endowment Board. Some Penang DAP activists told ST that this “conflict and split” was damaging the party’s bid for a fifth term in power.

“It reminds us of Gerakan in 2008, when they were arguing over who would be the next chief minister and didn’t realise they were about to be wiped out,” a party insider said.

When asked, Mr Chow responded: “Hopefully this scenario is not like 2008… against the backdrop of a very unfavourable political situation.”